Businesses expecting a recession


Businesses expecting a recession

This week there were no end of strange headlines, from Trump tries to buy Greenland to Trump declares himself the chosen one, but its likely they were all an attempt to obscure the one headline that really mattered; the latest survey of purchasing managers that suggests US businesses are expecting a recession. The PMI survey is an indicator of sentiment, but if enough people believe there will be a recession it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The markets and industry are now expecting a recession, if this pessimism spreads to the consumer, one could be here sooner than we think.

Elsewhere another strange headline has been spreading suggesting that Angela Merkel has given Boris Johnson 30 days to figure out the Irish Border issue in order to drop the backstop. It’s odd because anyone who has read the transcript knows she said nothing of the sort and the issue is as intractable as ever. It’s spread might well be connected to the fact that Boris Johnson keeps saying it despite it being obvious nonsense. Any Brexit negotiations now are probably just theatre and designed to help in the inevitable general election campaign.

Read what the team at FE consider to be significant over the current week.