Insights

Weekly Market Commentary – 3rd October

3 October 2025

This week there was little reaction to the US government’s shutdown. US equities were part of the global rally in risk assets and US government bonds also gained, as yields fell, as part of the general move up in developed government bond prices. The shutdown and furlough of non-essential staff means, among other things, that there is no monthly update from the federal government on employment, which was due today. As a result, the private sector ADP payroll update, which was out earlier this week, has taken on more importance. The drop in private sector jobs in September is at least partly behind this week’s gains, as a 0.25% cut from the Federal Reserve is now seen as a racing certainty.