Insights

Weekly Market Commentary 17th July 2026

17 July 2026

This week the rationale for the US resuming hostilities in the Middle East remained elusive. Did strong growth and cooler inflation at home give Donald Trump room to be more aggressive towards Iran? Or were the bombing raids a negotiating tactic, meant to force concessions from the Iranian government? Oil prices have risen again, though far less steeply than after war broke out in late February. Bond yields have also moved less dramatically than in March, but they remain well above pre-war levels. Petrol and diesel receive less attention than crude oil, yet their prices have risen sharply, lending weight to industry warnings about shortages of refined products.