Insights

Weekly Market Commentary – 14th November

14 November 2025

This week we received another lesson in the law of unintended consequences. In the UK, GDP growth stagnated in the third quarter as manufacturing and industrial production fell sharply. Meanwhile, retail sales growth slowed in September, employers have scaled back hiring plans and the housing market slowed. The reason given for some or all of the slowdown in activity is the Treasury’s attempt to pave the way for tax rises in the budget by warning of a dire financial position and the need for belt tightening. It is easy to see why the government wants to justify the breaking of a key manifesto promise, but this is the second time it’s messaging appears to have had a chilling effect on business and consumer confidence.