Insights

Weekly Market Commentary – 18th July

24 July 2025

This week’s inflation numbers provided the first evidence that Donald Trump’s tariffs are pushing up prices. CPI inflation increased more than expected as it rose for the second month in a row and all areas except cars increased month-on-month. There is significant disagreement about how far and how persistent the inflationary pressure will prove to be, as some companies choose to swallow some or all of the increase in costs rather than pass them on to consumers. The big increase in US customs revenues shows the size of the potential problem.