Insights

Weekly Market Commentary – 26th June 2026

26 June 2026

This week saw the price of oil return to its pre-conflict level as Brent crude hit $72 a barrel. The price is still above the $67 average seen in January and February, reflecting the run-up in the days before fighting began. With many countries planning to increase production, prices should fall further. Oil’s decline is already shifting expectations for interest rates. Rate hikes in Europe and the UK now look less likely, and government bonds have gained as a result. The picture in the US is different. There, strong economic growth and rising wages remain a concern, and markets are adjusting to Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s stated intention to bring inflation under control. This has pushed up the dollar and weighed on gold.