Insights

Weekly Market Commentary – 31st July 2026

31 July 2026

This week US government bonds swung unexpectedly after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The decision was widely expected and the Fed remains in line with the ECB and Bank of England. Yet a sell-off in Treasuries pushed yields to their highest levels in almost two decades. Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s communication style is a significant contributor. Warsh has made it clear that he thinks the Fed should not give a running commentary on its views. But this means investors will fill in the blanks. Where some see an unexpected dovish shift from the central bank, others fear a lack of action will allow inflation to run out of control. Warsh’s silence will face further tests before the year is out.