Insights

Weekly Market Commentary 3rd July 2026

3 July 2026

This week’s US jobs report disappointed and cheered observers in almost equal measure. Only 57,000 new roles were created last month, far fewer than in May. This adds to concern that massive AI investment is driving US growth without the wider economy sharing in it. On the other hand, the bad-news-is-good-news narrative means that fewer jobs and slower wage growth should ease inflation concerns at the Federal Reserve, so there will be fewer interest rate hikes. For now, markets are looking at the silver lining, as the dollar moved lower and US and global equity markets gained. Other indicators, however, suggest the economy remains resilient, and one month’s data should be treated with caution.